Aurora Energy was commissioned by the Hanseatic Energy Hub to analyse how well prepared Germany is, especially for technical incidents in gas supply.
The scientists looked at two scenarios considering the complete failure of Russian natural gas supplies. In the "base scenario", gas demand increases slightly until 2025 and then decreases slightly. In another "optimistic scenario", demand falls by around 15 percent by 2030. Even here, the German LNG terminals would already be working at 83 percent of their capacity. Included are five floating terminals with a total capacity of about 25 bcm/a and, besides the Hanseatic Energy Hub in Stade, two other fixed LNG terminals with a capacity of about 40 bcm/a. Even a slight shift in the base scenario could lead to a gas shortage despite full utilization of all German terminals. The situation becomes even more critical if one of the most important Norwegian pipelines to Germany (Europipe II) fails.
"The study adds an important facet to the discussion on security of supply in Germany: the capacity of around 25 bcm/a gained through FSRUs is not sufficient for real energy resilience. The capacity of the energy import infrastructure should not be stretched to the limit, otherwise the system will not be resilient to failures. Insufficient reserves in the gas import infrastructure pose significant risks in the long run. Only the combination of efficient and sustainable land terminals with flexible, floating facilities that are available for emergencies can create the security of supply that the industrial location of Germany requires," says Johann Killinger, Managing Director and co-shareholder of the Hanseatic Energy Hub.
For the most important key figures, please see the Study.